Comparing serial and current liver stiffness measurements to predict decompensation in compensated advanced chronic liver disease patients.

INTRODUCTION: The utility of serial liver stiffness measurements (LSM) to predict decompensation in compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) patients remains unclear. We aimed to validate whether comparing serial LSM is superior to using the current LSM to predict liver-related events (LRE) in cACLD patients. METHODS: In this retrospective analysis of an international registry, cACLD patients with serial LSM were followed up until index LRE. We compared the performance of both the dynamic LSM changes and the current LSM (LSMc ) in predicting LRE using Cox-regression analysis, considering time zero of follow-up as the date of LSMc. RESULT: 480 cACLD patients with serial LSM were included from 5 countries. The commonest etiology of cACLD was viral (53%) and MASLD (34%). Over a median follow-up of 68 (45-92) months, 32% experienced LSM decrease to levels below 10kPa (resolved-cACLD) and 5.8% experienced LRE. Resolved-cACLD were more likely to be non-diabetic and had better liver function. While a higher value of the current LSM (LSMc) was associated with higher LREs, LSM changes over time (LSM slope) were not associated with LRE. In multivariable Cox regression, both prior LSM and LSM slope did not add predictive value to LSMc. CONCLUSION: Once the current LSM is known, previous LSM values do not add to the prediction of LREs in cACLD patients.

Risk Factors for Development of Cirrhosis in Chronic Viral Hepatitis B Patients Who Had Persistent Viral Suppression With Antiviral Therapy.

Background and aims: Chronic viral hepatitis B (CHB)-infected patients occasionally develop cirrhosis despite having persistent viral suppression with antiviral therapy. We aimed to identify risk factors for developing cirrhosis in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-suppressed patients. Methods: We conducted a case-control study involving 120 noncirrhotic CHB-infected patients achieving viral suppression with antiviral treatment, with 40 cases developing cirrhosis and 80 age-, sex-, and Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4)-matched controls. Clinical and laboratory data at viral suppression, including body mass index (BMI), comorbidities, pretreatment HBV viral load, HBe antigen status, hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HIV coinfections, liver chemistries, and AST to Platelets Ratio Index (APRI) values, were retrospectively abstracted. Risk factors for cirrhosis post-HBV suppression were identified using Cox proportional hazard analysis. Results: Case and control groups had similar ages (51.4 ± 9.9 vs. 51.4 ± 10.2 years), proportions of males (80% vs. 80%), and FIB-4 values (1.32 vs. 1.31). The cirrhosis group showed significantly higher BMI (25.1 vs. 22.7, P = 0.01) and more diabetes prevalence (50.0% vs. 26.3%, P = 0.01), while other comorbidities and laboratory parameters were comparable (P > 0.05). By univariate analysis, BMI >23 kg/m2, diabetes, and APRI >0.7 were significantly associated with cirrhosis, with hazard ratios (HRs) (95%CI) of 2.99 (1.46-6.13), 2.31 (1.23-4.36), and 2.71 (1.05-6.99), P = 0.003, 0.010, and 0.039, respectively. In multivariate analyses adjusted for APRI, BMI>23 kg/m2 remained significantly associated with cirrhosis (aHR: 2.76, P = 0.006), while diabetes showed borderline significance (aHR: 1.99, P = 0.072). Conclusions: In HBV-infected patients achieving viral suppression with therapy, a BMI >23 kg/m2 increases the risk of cirrhosis. Therefore, a comprehensive approach addressing metabolic factors is imperative for preventing disease progression in HBV-infected patients.

Bacterial DNA translocation is associated with overt hepatic encephalopathy and mortality in patients with cirrhosis.

INTRODUCTION: Data on the relationship between bacterial translocation, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), and mortality are scarce. This study aimed to assess the association between bacterial DNA (bactDNA) translocation, inflammatory response, ammonia levels, and severity of HE in patients with cirrhosis, as well as the role of bactDNA translocation in predicting mortality. METHODS: Cirrhotic patients without bacterial infection were prospectively enrolled between June 2022 and January 2023. Grading of HE was classified by the West Haven Criteria and Psychometric hepatic encephalopathy score (PHES) ≤ -5. RESULTS: Overall, 294 cirrhotic patients were enrolled, with 92 (31.3%) and 58 (19.7%) having covert and overt HE, respectively. BactDNA translocation was detected in 36.1% of patients (n = 106). Patients with overt HE had more bactDNA translocation and higher serum lipopolysaccharide-binding protein (LBP), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and ammonia levels than those without HE. Patients with detectable bactDNA had higher white cell counts and serum LBP and IL-6 levels than those without. In contrast, bactDNA, serum LBP, and soluble CD14 levels were comparable between patients with covert HE and those without HE. The multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that bactDNA translocation (HR=2.49, 95%CI: 1.22-5.11), MELD score (HR=1.12, 95%CI: 1.09-1.16), age (HR=1.05, 95%CI: 1.000-1.002), and baseline IL-6 (HR=1.001, 95% CI: 1.000-1.002) were independent factors associated with six-month mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Apart from hyperammonemia, bactDNA translocation is a possible factor associated with overt HE in cirrhotic patients. BactDNA translocation and IL-6 are independent factors associated with six-month mortality.

Ammonia is associated with liver-related complications and predicts mortality in acute-on-chronic liver failure patients.

The relationship between ammonia and liver-related complications (LRCs) in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients is not clearly established. This study aimed to evaluate the association between ammonia levels and LRCs in patients with ACLF. The study also evaluated the ability of ammonia in predicting mortality and progression of LRCs. The study prospectively recruited ACLF patients based on the APASL definition from the ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) from 2009 to 2019. LRCs were a composite endpoint of bacterial infection, overt hepatic encephalopathy (HE), and ascites. A total of 3871 cases were screened. Of these, 701 ACLF patients were enrolled. Patients with LRCs had significantly higher ammonia levels than those without. Ammonia was significantly higher in patients with overt HE and ascites, but not in those with bacterial infection. Multivariate analysis found that ammonia was associated with LRCs. Additionally, baseline arterial ammonia was an independent predictor of 30-day mortality, but it was not associated with the development of new LRCs within 30 days. In summary, baseline arterial ammonia levels are associated with 30-day mortality and LRCs, mainly overt HE and ascites in ACLF patients.

Expert consensus on the diagnosis and treatment of end-stage liver disease complicated by infections.

End-stage liver disease (ESLD) is a life-threatening clinical syndrome and when complicated with infection the mortality is markedly increased. In patients with ESLD, bacterial or fungal infection can induce or aggravate the occurrence or progression of liver decompensation. Consequently, infections are among the most common complications of disease deterioration. There is an overwhelming need for standardized protocols for early diagnosis and appropriate management for patients with ESLD complicated by infections. Asia Pacific region has the largest number of ESLD patients, due to hepatitis B and the growing population of alcohol and NAFLD. Concomitant infections not only add to organ failure and high mortality but also to financial and healthcare burdens. This consensus document assembled up-to-date knowledge and experience from colleagues across the Asia-Pacific region, providing data on the principles as well as evidence-based current working protocols and practices for the diagnosis and treatment of patients with ESLD complicated by infections.

Correlation between neck circumference and hepatic steatosis determined by controlled attenuation parameter.

Neck circumference is an attractive method for determining metabolic profiles and has many advantages over waist circumference. However, the correlation between neck circumference and hepatic fibrosis has not been evaluated. The aim of this study was to evaluate the correlation between neck circumference and hepatic fibrosis and define the optimal cut-off point for neck circumference to determine hepatic fibrosis. A cross-sectional study (n = 333) was conducted among Thai healthcare workers at Phramongkutklao Hospital who received an annual health maintenance program. Neck circumference was measured at the lower margin of the laryngeal prominence. Fibroscan® with a controlled attenuation parameter was used to measure the degree of hepatic fibrosis and steatosis by an experienced, well-trained operator. In the cross-sectional analysis, it was found that the large circumference of the neck was associated with hepatic fibrosis (r = 0.19, p = .001) and hepatic steatosis (r = 0.58, p < .001). Hepatic fibrosis (r = 0.15, p = .004) and steatosis (r = 0.53, p < .001) were also associated with waist circumference. The neck circumferences of 40 and 34 cm were the best cut-offs for male and female participants, respectively.Neck circumference is closely related to hepatic fibrosis and steatosis, which should be promoted and has a better advantage than waist circumference in the screening of hepatic steatosis.

Machine learning improves the prediction of significant fibrosis in Asian patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease - The Gut and Obesity in Asia (GO-ASIA) Study.

BACKGROUND: The precise estimation of cases with significant fibrosis (SF) is an unmet goal in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD/MASLD). AIMS: We evaluated the performance of machine learning (ML) and non-patented scores for ruling out SF among NAFLD/MASLD patients. METHODS: Twenty-one ML models were trained (N = 1153), tested (N = 283), and validated (N = 220) on clinical and biochemical parameters of histologically-proven NAFLD/MASLD patients (N = 1656) collected across 14 centres in 8 Asian countries. Their performance for detecting histological-SF (≥F2fibrosis) were evaluated with APRI, FIB4, NFS, BARD, and SAFE (NPV/F1-score as model-selection criteria). RESULTS: Patients aged 47 years (median), 54.6% males, 73.7% with metabolic syndrome, and 32.9% with histological-SF were included in the study. Patients with SFvs.no-SF had higher age, aminotransferases, fasting plasma glucose, metabolic syndrome, uncontrolled diabetes, and NAFLD activity score (p < 0.001, each). ML models showed 7%-12% better discrimination than FIB-4 to detect SF. Optimised random forest (RF) yielded best NPV/F1 in overall set (0.947/0.754), test set (0.798/0.588) and validation set (0.852/0.559), as compared to FIB4 in overall set (0.744/0.499), test set (0.722/0.456), and validation set (0.806/0.507). Compared to FIB-4, RF could pick 10 times more patients with SF, reduce unnecessary referrals by 28%, and prevent missed referrals by 78%. Age, AST, ALT fasting plasma glucose, and platelet count were top features determining the SF. Sequential use of SAFE < 140 and FIB4 < 1.2 (when SAFE > 140) was next best in ruling out SF (NPV of 0.757, 0.724 and 0.827 in overall, test and validation set). CONCLUSIONS: ML with clinical, anthropometric data and simple blood investigations perform better than FIB-4 for ruling out SF in biopsy-proven Asian NAFLD/MASLD patients.

Effect of Preoperative Very Low-Calorie Diets on Hepatic Steatosis, Fibrosis, and Perioperative Outcomes of Bariatric Surgery.

Introduction: Preoperative weight loss through a very low-calorie diet (VLCD) has been shown to reduce liver volume and technical difficulty in patients undergoing metabolic and bariatric surgery (MBS). However, the effect of preoperative VLCD on liver histology and other outcomes is not well demonstrated. Our study aimed to explore the effect of a 2-week preoperative VLCD, compared with no-dietary intervention, on hepatic steatosis, fibrosis, weight loss, and other postoperative outcomes of MBS. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study was conducted at the Chulalongkorn Bariatric and Metabolic Institute, King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand. The medical records of patients with severe obesity (body mass index ≥50 kg/m2) attending the clinic from January 2005 to December 2020 were reviewed. Clinical data and laboratory investigations were collected at baseline and at each follow-up visit, up to 5 years postoperatively. Hepatic steatosis and fibrosis were assessed by liver biopsy intraoperatively. Results: A total of 181 patients were included in this study. Preoperative VLCD was prescribed in 65 patients (VLCD group) and 116 patients received their usual diet (control group). Mean preoperative weight loss was 9.1 ± 6.1 kg in the VLCD group versus 0.0 ± 0.0 kg in the control group (P = .000). The VLCD group had significantly less number of patients with moderate and severe liver steatosis from the liver biopsy specimens (16.2% versus 46.3%; P = .008). However, there was no significant difference in fibrosis grade between those with VLCD and control (≥F2-fibrosis; 2.7% versus 7.5%; P = .118). Moreover, preoperative VLCD could reduce operating time in patients who underwent both laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB; VLCD 163.4 ± 38.2 minutes versus control 215.1 ± 67.4 minute, P = .000) and laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG; VLCD 110.8 ± 20.0 minutes versus control 131.0 ± 38.1 minutes, P = .004). During the 5-year follow-up, there were a significant difference of HbA1C between the VLCD and the control group (coefficient: -0.24 with 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.44 to -0.04, P = .019), particularly in patients who underwent LRYGB (Coefficient: -0.26 with 95% CI: -0.49 to -0.03, P = .028), but not LSG. However, long-term weight loss outcomes and other biochemical outcomes were not different between the VLCD and the control group. Conclusion: Preoperative VLCD was associated with reduced liver steatosis and operative time in patients who underwent LRYGB and LSG. Moreover, preoperative VLCD significantly decreased HbA1C during a 5-year follow-up period. Therefore, it should be considered in patients with severe obesity, who will undergo MBS.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Non-Contrast Abbreviated Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance in Cirrhosis.

Background/Aims: Ultrasonography has a low sensitivity for detecting early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in cirrhotic patients. Non-contrast abbreviated magnetic resonance imaging (aMRI) demonstrated a comparable performance to that of magnetic resonance imaging without the risk of contrast media exposure and at a lower cost than that of full diagnostic MRI. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of non-contrast aMRI for HCC surveillance in cirrhotic patients, using ultrasonography with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) as a reference. Methods: Cost-utility analysis was performed using a Markov model in Thailand and the United States. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated using the total costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained in each strategy. Surveillance protocols were considered cost-effective based on a willingness-to-pay value of $4,665 (160,000 Thai Baht) in Thailand and $50,000 in the United States. Results: aMRI was cost-effective in both countries with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $3,667/QALY in Thailand and $37,062/QALY in the United States. Patient-level microsimulations showed consistent findings that aMRI was cost-effective in both countries. By probabilistic sensitivity analysis, aMRI was found to be more cost-effective than combined ultrasonography and AFP with a probability of 0.77 in Thailand and 0.98 in the United States. By sensitivity analyses, annual HCC incidence was revealed as the most influential factor affecting cost-effectiveness. The cost-effectiveness of aMRI increased in settings with a higher HCC incidence. At a higher HCC incidence, aMRI would remain cost-effective at a higher aMRI-to-ultrasonography with AFP cost ratio. Conclusions: Compared to ultrasonography with AFP, non-contrast aMRI is a cost-effective strategy for HCC surveillance and may be useful for such surveillance in cirrhotic patients, especially in those with high HCC risks.

Global survey of stigma among physicians and patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with fatty liver disease may experience stigma from the disease or comorbidities. In this cross-sectional study, we aimed to understand stigma among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and healthcare providers. METHODS: Members of the Global NASH Council created two surveys about experiences/attitudes toward NAFLD and related diagnostic terms: a 68-item patient and a 41-item provider survey. RESULTS: Surveys were completed by 1,976 patients with NAFLD across 23 countries (51% Middle East/North Africa [MENA], 19% Europe, 17% USA, 8% Southeast Asia, 5% South Asia) and 825 healthcare providers (67% gastroenterologists/hepatologists) across 25 countries (39% MENA, 28% Southeast Asia, 22% USA, 6% South Asia, 3% Europe). Of all patients, 48% ever disclosed having NAFLD/NASH to family/friends; the most commonly used term was "fatty liver" (88% at least sometimes); "metabolic disease" or "MAFLD" were rarely used (never by >84%). Regarding various perceptions of diagnostic terms by patients, there were no substantial differences between "NAFLD", "fatty liver disease (FLD)", "NASH", or "MAFLD". The most popular response was being neither comfortable nor uncomfortable with either term (56%-71%), with slightly greater discomfort with "FLD" among the US and South Asian patients (47-52% uncomfortable). Although 26% of patients reported stigma related to overweight/obesity, only 8% reported a history of stigmatization or discrimination due to NAFLD. Among providers, 38% believed that the term "fatty" was stigmatizing, while 34% believed that "nonalcoholic" was stigmatizing, more commonly in MENA (43%); 42% providers (gastroenterologists/hepatologists 45% vs. 37% other specialties, p = 0.03) believed that the name change to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (or MASLD) might reduce stigma. Regarding the new nomenclature, the percentage of providers reporting "steatotic liver disease" as stigmatizing was low (14%). CONCLUSIONS: The perception of NAFLD stigma varies among patients, providers, geographic locations and sub-specialties. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Over the past decades, efforts have been made to change the nomenclature of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) to better align with its underlying pathogenetic pathways and remove any potential stigma associated with the name. Given the paucity of data related to stigma in NAFLD, we undertook this global comprehensive survey to assess stigma in NAFLD among patients and providers from around the world. We found there is a disconnect between physicians and patients related to stigma and related nomenclature. With this knowledge, educational programs can be developed to better target stigma in NAFLD among all stakeholders and to provide a better opportunity for the new nomenclature to address the issues of stigma.

Modified albumin-bilirubin predicted survival of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with immunotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Modified albumin-bilirubin (mALBI) grade has been established as a survival determinant in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who receive locoregional and targeted therapies. AIM: To investigate whether mALBI could predict survival in unresectable HCC (uHCC) patients who were treated with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (AB). METHODS: A single-center, retrospective cohort study enrolled uHCC patients who received AB treatment between September 2020 and April 2023 and were followed up until June 2023. An association between mALBI and patient survival was determined using Cox proportional hazards analysis. RESULTS: Of the 83 patients, 67 patients (80.7%) were male with the mean age of 60.6 years. Among them, 22 patients (26.5%) were classified as Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer B, and 61 patients (73.5%) were classified as Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer C. Cirrhosis was present in 76 patients (91.6%), with 58 patients classified as Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) A and 18 as CTP B. The median overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival were 13.0 mo [95% confidence interval (CI): 5.2-20.8] and 9.0 mo (95%CI: 5.0-13.0), respectively. The patients were divided into two groups based on mALBI grades: 42 patients (50.6%) in the mALBI 1 + 2a group; and 41 patients (49.4%) in the mALBI 2b + 3 group. During the median follow-up period of 7.0 mo, the mALBI 1 + 2a group exhibited significantly better survival compared to the mALBI 2b + 3 group, with a median OS that was not reached vs 3.0 mo (95%CI: 0.1-6.0, P < 0.001). In a subgroup of patients with CTP A, the mALBI 1 + 2a group also showed significantly longer survival compared to the mALBI 2b + 3 group, with a median OS that was not reached vs 6.0 mo (95%CI: 3.4-8.6, P < 0.001). In the multivariate analysis, both CTP class and mALBI grade were independently associated with survival, with adjusted hazard ratios (95%CI) of 2.63 (1.19-5.78, P = 0.020) and 3.90 (1.71-8.90, P = 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSION: mALBI grades can determine survival of uHCC patients receiving AB treatment, particularly those who have mildly impaired liver function. This highlights the importance of assessing mALBI before initiating AB treatment to optimize therapeutic efficacy in clinical practice.

Validation of the albumin-bilirubin score for identifying decompensation risk in patients with compensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score is an index of liver function recently developed to assess prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). It can detect small changes in liver dysfunction and has been successfully applied to the prediction of survival in patients with non-malignant liver diseases of various etiologies. AIM: To investigate the ALBI score for identifying decompensation risk at the 3-year follow-up in patients with compensated cirrhosis. METHODS: One-hundred and twenty-three patients with compensated cirrhosis without HCC in King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital diagnosed by imaging were retrospectively enrolled from January 2016 to December 2020. A total of 113 patients (91.9%) had Child A cirrhosis with a median model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score of less than 9. Baseline clinical and laboratory variables and decompensation events were collected. The ALBI score was calculated and validated to classify decompensation risk into low-, middle-, and high-risk groups using three ALBI grade ranges (ALBI grade 1: ≤ -2.60; grade 2: > -2.60 but ≤ -1.39; grade 3: > -1.39). Decompensation events were defined as ascites development, variceal bleeding, or grade 3 or 4 hepatic encephalopathy. RESULTS: Among 123 cirrhotic patients enrolled, 13.8% (n = 17) developed decompensating events at a median time of 25 [95% confidence interval (CI): 17-31] mo. Median baseline ALBI score in compensated cirrhosis was significantly lower than that of patients who developed decompensation events [-2.768 (-2.956 to -2.453) vs -2.007 (-2.533 to -1.537); P = 0.01]. Analysis of decompensation risk at 3 years showed that ALBI score had a time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC) of 0.86 (95%CI: 0.78-0.92), which was significantly better than that of ALBI-Fibrosis-4 (ALBI-FIB4) score (tAUC = 0.77), MELD score (tAUC = 0.66), Child-Pugh score (tAUC = 0.65), and FIB-4 score (tAUC = 0.48) (P < 0.05 for all). The 3-year cumulative incidence of decompensation was 3.1%, 22.6%, and 50% in the low-, middle-, and high-risk groups, respectively (P < 0.001). The odds ratio for decompensation in patients of the high-risk group was 23.33 (95%CI: 3.88-140.12, P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: The ALBI score accurately identifies decompensation risk at the 3-year follow-up in patients with compensated cirrhosis. Those cirrhotic patients with a high-risk grade of ALBI score showed a 23 times greater odds of decompensation.

An international Delphi consensus statement on metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease and risk of chronic kidney disease.

Background: With the rising global prevalence of fatty liver disease related to metabolic dysfunction, the association of this common liver condition with chronic kidney disease (CKD) has become increasingly evident. In 2020, the more inclusive term metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) was proposed to replace the term non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The observed association between MAFLD and CKD and our understanding that CKD can be a consequence of underlying metabolic dysfunction support the notion that individuals with MAFLD are at higher risk of having and developing CKD compared with those without MAFLD. However, to date, there is no appropriate guidance on CKD in individuals with MAFLD. Furthermore, there has been little attention paid to the link between MAFLD and CKD in the Nephrology community. Methods and Results: Using a Delphi-based approach, a multidisciplinary panel of 50 international experts from 26 countries reached a consensus on some of the open research questions regarding the link between MAFLD and CKD. Conclusions: This Delphi-based consensus statement provided guidance on the epidemiology, mechanisms, management and treatment of MAFLD and CKD, as well as the relationship between the severity of MAFLD and risk of CKD, which establish a framework for the early prevention and management of these two common and interconnected diseases.

An international multidisciplinary consensus statement on MAFLD and the risk of CVD.

BACKGROUND: Fatty liver disease in the absence of excessive alcohol consumption is an increasingly common condition with a global prevalence of ~ 25-30% and is also associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Since systemic metabolic dysfunction underlies its pathogenesis, the term metabolic (dysfunction)-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) has been proposed for this condition. MAFLD is closely intertwined with obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus and atherogenic dyslipidemia, which are established cardiovascular risk factors. Unlike CVD, which has received attention in the literature on fatty liver disease, the CVD risk associated with MAFLD is often underestimated, especially among Cardiologists. METHODS AND RESULTS: A multidisciplinary panel of fifty-two international experts comprising Hepatologists, Endocrinologists, Diabetologists, Cardiologists and Family Physicians from six continents (Asia, Europe, North America, South America, Africa and Oceania) participated in a formal Delphi survey and developed consensus statements on the association between MAFLD and the risk of CVD. Statements were developed on different aspects of CVD risk, ranging from epidemiology to mechanisms, screening, and management. CONCULSIONS: The expert panel identified important clinical associations between MAFLD and the risk of CVD that could serve to increase awareness of the adverse metabolic and cardiovascular outcomes of MAFLD. Finally, the expert panel also suggests potential areas for future research.

Identifying the early predictors of non-response to steroids in patients with flare of autoimmune hepatitis causing acute-on-chronic liver failure.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Early identification of non-response to steroids is critical in patients with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) causing acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). We assessed if this non-response can be accurately identified within first few days of treatment. METHODS: Patients with AIH-ACLF without baseline infection/hepatic encephalopathy were identified from APASL ACLF research consortium (AARC) database. Diagnosis of AIH-ACLF was based mainly on histology. Those treated with steroids were assessed for non-response (defined as death or liver transplant at 90 days for present study). Laboratory parameters, AARC, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores were assessed at baseline and day 3 to identify early non-response. Utility of dynamic SURFASA score [- 6.80 + 1.92*(D0-INR) + 1.94*(∆%3-INR) + 1.64*(∆%3-bilirubin)] was also evaluated. The performance of early predictors was compared with changes in MELD score at 2 weeks. RESULTS: Fifty-five out of one hundred and sixty-five patients (age-38.2 ± 15.0 years, 67.2% females) with AIH-ACLF [median MELD 24 (IQR: 22-27); median AARC score 7 (6-9)] given oral prednisolone 40 (20-40) mg per day were analyzed. The 90 day transplant-free survival in this cohort was 45.7% with worse outcomes in those with incident infections (56% vs 28.0%, p = 0.03). The AUROC of pre-therapy AARC score [0.842 (95% CI 0.754-0.93)], MELD [0.837 (95% CI 0.733-0.94)] score and SURFASA score [0.795 (95% CI 0.678-0.911)] were as accurate as ∆MELD at 2 weeks [0.770 (95% CI 0.687-0.845), p = 0.526] and better than ∆MELD at 3 days [0.541 (95% CI 0.395, 0.687), p < 0.001] to predict non-response. Combination of AARC score > 6, MELD score > 24 with SURFASA score ≥ - 1.2, could identify non-responders at day 3 (concomitant- 75% vs either - 42%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Baseline AARC score, MELD score, and the dynamic SURFASA score on day 3 can accurately identify early non-response to steroids in AIH-ACLF.

Psychometric Hepatic Encephalopathy Score for the Diagnosis of Minimal Hepatic Encephalopathy in Thai Cirrhotic Patients.

The psychometric hepatic encephalopathy score (PHES) is the gold standard for diagnosing minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE). Screening for MHE is frequently overlooked in clinical practice due to time constraints. Furthermore, the simplified animal naming test (S-ANT1) is a new simple tool for evaluating MHE in cirrhotic patients. The purpose of this study was to standardize the PHES in a healthy Thai population, assess the prevalence of MHE, and validate the S-ANT1 in detecting MHE in patients with cirrhosis. The study included 194 healthy controls and 203 cirrhotic patients without overt HE. Psychometric tests and the S-ANT1 were administered to all participants. Multiple linear regression was used to analyze factors related to PHES results, and formulas were developed to predict the results for each PHES subtest. In healthy controls, age and education were predictors of all five subtests. The PHES of the control group was −0.26 ± 2.28 points, and the threshold for detecting MHE was set at ≤ −5 points. The cirrhotic group had PHES values of −2.6 ± 3.1 points. Moreover, MHE was found to be present in 26.6% of cirrhotic patients. S-ANT1 had a moderate positive correlation with PHES (r = 0.44, p < 0.001). S-ANT1 < 22 named animals detected MHE with a sensitivity of 71.2%, specificity of 65%, and area under the receiver operating curve of 0.68 (p < 0.001). In conclusion, Thai PHES normative data have been developed to detect MHE in cirrhotic patients who do not have overt HE. The optimal cutoff for detecting MHE in Thai cirrhotic patients was PHES ≤ −5 points and S-ANT1 < 22 named.

APASL-ACLF Research Consortium-Artificial Intelligence (AARC-AI) model precisely predicts outcomes in acute-on-chronic liver failure patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We hypothesized that artificial intelligence (AI) models are more precise than standard models for predicting outcomes in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). METHODS: We recruited ACLF patients between 2009 and 2020 from APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC). Their clinical data, investigations and organ involvement were serially noted for 90-days and utilized for AI modelling. Data were split randomly into train and validation sets. Multiple AI models, MELD and AARC-Model, were created/optimized on train set. Outcome prediction abilities were evaluated on validation sets through area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and class precision. RESULTS: Among 2481 ACLF patients, 1501 in train set and 980 in validation set, the extreme gradient boost-cross-validated model (XGB-CV) demonstrated the highest AUC in train (0.999), validation (0.907) and overall sets (0.976) for predicting 30-day outcomes. The AUC and accuracy of the XGB-CV model (%Δ) were 7.0% and 6.9% higher than the standard day-7 AARC model (p < .001) and 12.8% and 10.6% higher than the day 7 MELD for 30-day predictions in validation set (p < .001). The XGB model had the highest AUC for 7- and 90-day predictions as well (p < .001). Day-7 creatinine, international normalized ratio (INR), circulatory failure, leucocyte count and day-4 sepsis were top features determining the 30-day outcomes. A simple decision tree incorporating creatinine, INR and circulatory failure was able to classify patients into high (~90%), intermediate (~60%) and low risk (~20%) of mortality. A web-based AARC-AI model was developed and validated twice with optimal performance for 30-day predictions. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of the AARC-AI model exceeds the standard models for outcome predictions in ACLF. An AI-based decision tree can reliably undertake severity-based stratification of patients for timely interventions.

Characteristics of Drug-induced Liver Injury in Chronic Liver Disease: Results from the Thai Association for the Study of the Liver (THASL) DILI Registry.

Background and Aims: The impact of drug-induced liver injury (DILI) on patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) is unclear. There are few reports comparing DILI in CLD and non-CLD patients. In this study, we aimed to determine the incidence and outcomes of DILI in patients with and without CLD. Methods: We collected data on eligible individuals with suspected DILI between 2018 and 2020 who were evaluated systematically for other etiologies, causes, and the severity of DILI. We compared the causative agents, clinical features, and outcomes of DILI among subjects with and without CLD who were enrolled in the Thai Association for the Study of the Liver DILI registry. Subjects with definite, or highly likely DILI were included in the analysis. Results: A total of 200 subjects diagnosed with DILI were found in the registry. Of those, 41 had CLD and 159 had no evidence of CLD in their background. Complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) products were identified as the most common class of DILI agents. Approximately 59% of DILI in the CLD and 40% in non-CLD group were associated with CAM use. Individuals with pre-existing CLD had similar severity including mortality. Twelve patients (6%) developed adverse outcomes related to DILI including seven (3.5%) deaths and five (2.5%) with liver failure. Mortality was 4.88% in CLD and 3.14% in non-CLD subjects over median periods of 58 (8-106) days and 22 (1-65) days, respectively. Conclusions: In this liver disease registry, the causes, clinical presentation, and outcomes of DILI in subjects with CLD and without CLD patients were not different. Further study is required to confirm our findings.

Validation of prognostic scores predicting mortality in acute liver decompensation or acute-on-chronic liver failure: A Thailand multicenter study.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: Cirrhosis patients with worsening of the liver function are defined as acute decompensation (AD) and those who develop extrahepatic organ failure are defined as acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Both AD and ACLF have an extremely poor prognosis. However, information regarding prognostic predictors is still lacking in Asian populations. We aimed to identify prognostic factors for 30-day and 90-day mortality in cirrhosis patients who develop AD with or without ACLF. METHODS: We included 9 tertiary hospitals from Thailand in a retrospective observational study enrolling hospitalized cirrhosis patients with AD. ACLF was diagnosed according to the EASL-CLIF criteria, which defined as AD patients who have kidney failure or a combination of at least two non-kidney organ failure. Outcomes were clinical parameters and prognostic scores associated with mortality evaluated at 30 days and 90 days. RESULTS: Between 2015 and 2020, 602 patients (301 for each group) were included. The 30-day and 90-day mortality rates of ACLF vs. AD were 57.48% vs. 25.50% (p<0.001) and 67.44% vs. 32.78% (p<0.001), respectively. For ACLF patients, logistic regression analysis adjusted for demographic data, and clinical information showed that increasing creatinine was a predictor for 30-day mortality (p = 0.038), while the CLIF-C OF score predicted both 30-day (p = 0.018) and 90-day (p = 0.037) mortalities, achieving the best discriminatory power with AUROCs of 0.705 and 0.709, respectively. For AD patients, none of the parameters was found to be significantly associated with 30-day mortality, while bacterial infection, CLIF-AD score and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score were independent parameters associated with 90-day mortality, with p values of 0.041, 0.024 and 0.024. However, their predictive performance became nonsignificant after adjustment by multivariate regression analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Regarding Thai patients, the CLIF-C OF score was the best predictor for 30-day and 90-day mortalities in ACLF patients, while appropriate prognostic factors for AD patients remained inconclusive.